Tuesday, January 24, 2006

Ridings to Watch on Election Night

Equal Voice 2006 Election Analysis


Newfoundland
Total Ridings: 7
Female Candidates: 8 in major parties plus Greens
Wins: 0
Close: 0
Long Shot: 0

Long Shot:
Siobhan Coady (Liberal) in St. John’s South Mount Pearl may have a chance against Conservative Loyola Hearn. New Democrat Peg Norman is running a strong campaign as well.


New Brunswick:
Total Ridings: 10
Female Candidates: 6
Wins: 0
Close: 0
Long Shot: 0

We predict that no women will win seats in New Brunswick


Nova Scotia:
Ridings: 11
Female Candidates: 7 (NDP and Green only)
Wins: 1
Close: 0
Long Shot: 0

Only One Predicted Win for a Woman:

Halifax: Alexa McDonough (NDP) - likely to win, but it may be close


PEI
Ridings: 4
Total Female Candidates: 3 (NDP and Green only)

We predict that no women will win seats in Prince Edward Island. All ridings are safe Liberal seats, and no Liberal women are running.


Quebec:
Ridings: 75
Female Candidates: 96
Wins: 18
Close: 6
Long Shots: none identified yet

Predicted Wins for Women:

Châteauguay Saint-Constant: Carole Freeman (Bloc)
Compton Stanstead: France Bonsat (Bloc)
Drummond: Pauline Picard (Bloc)
La Pointe-de-l'Île: Francine Lalonde (Bloc)
Laurentides Labelle: Johanne Deschamps (Bloc)
Laval: Nicole Demers (Bloc)
Longueuil Pierre-Boucher: Caroline St. Hilaire (Bloc)
Louis-Saint-Laurent: Josee Verner (Conservative)
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Lachine: Marlene Jennings (Liberal)
Papineau: Vivian Barbot (Bloc) is predicted to defeat Liberal cabinet Minister Pierre Pettigrew
Québec: Christiane Gagnon (Bloc)
Rimouski-Neigette—Témiscouata—Les Basques: Louise Thibault (Bloc)
Rivière-du-Nord: Monique Guay (Bloc)
Saint-Bruno—Saint-Hubert: Carole Lavallée (Bloc)
Terrebonne—Blainville: Diane Bourgeois (Bloc)
Trois-Rivières: Paule Brunelle (Bloc)
Vaudreuil-Soulanges: Meilie Faille (Bloc)
Westmount—Ville-Marie: Lucienne Robillard (Liberal)

Incumbent women who may lose seat:
Gatineau: Françoise Boivin (Liberal)
Jeanne-Le Ber: Liza Frulla (Liberal)

Ahuntsic: Incumbent Eleni Bakopanos (Liberal) and Maria Mourani (Bloc) are the front runners, with Mourani predicted to take the riding. Caroline Desrosiers of the NDP and Lynette Tremblay of the Greens are also running.

Women in Close Races

Christine Émond-Lapointe (BQ) is in a tight race with Conservative Lawrence Cannon and incumbent Liberal David Smith. Celine Breault of the NDP is also running a strong campaign.

Beauport Limoilou: Sylvie Boucher (Conservative) may defeat the Bloc incumbent.

Women running against women in close races:

Laval Les Îles: Raymonde Folco (Liberal) is in a tight race with BQ member Christiane Pichette, but so far is predicted to win.


Ontario:
Ridings: 106
Female Candidates: 88
Wins: 15
Close: 14
Long Shot: 2

Predicted Wins for Women:

Brampton West: Colleen Beaumier (Liberal)
Brampton Springdale: Ruby Dhalla (Liberal)
Don Valley East: Yasmin Ratsani (Liberal)
Durham: Bev Oda (Conservative)
Guelph: Brenda K. Chamberlain (Liberal)
Haldimand Norfolk: Diane Finley (Conservative)
Kitchener Centre: Karen Redman (Liberal)
London West: Sue Barnes (Liberal)
Mississauga East Cooksville: Albina Guarnieri (Liberal)
Oakville: Bonnie Brown (Liberal)
Renfrew Nipissing Pembroke: Cheryl Gallant (Conservative)
Simcoe Grey: Helena Guergis (Conservative)
Sudbury: Dianne Marleau (Liberal) - Close, but predicted to win
Thornhill: Susan Kadis (Liberal)
York West: Judy Sgro (Liberal)

Incumbent Women who may lose seat:
Aileen Carroll: Barrie
Carolyn Bennett: St. Paul’s
Diane Marleau: Sudbury
Belinda Stronach (Liberal): Newmarket Aurora
Paddy Torsney (Liberal): Burlington
Judi Longfield (Liberal): Whitby Oshawa

Women in Close Races
Hamilton Mountain: Chris Charlton (NDP) - Close - predicted to win
Kenora: Susan Barclay (NDP) Close - Predicted to win
Ottawa West-Nepean: Lee Farnworth (Liberal) - not predicted to win. New Democrat Marlene Rivier also seeking seat but it will likely go to conservative John Baird.
London Fanshawe: Irene Mathyssen (NDP) - predicted to win
Peterborough: Diane Lloyd (Liberal) - predicted to win
Trinity Spadina : Olivia Chow (NDP) -predicted to win

Women running against Women in close races:
Beaches East York: Maria Minna (Liberal) and Marilyn Churley (NDP)
Parkdale High Park: Sarmite Bulte (Liberal) and Peggy Nash (NDP)
Newmarket Aurora: Belinda Stronach (Liberal) and Lois Brown (Conservative)

Long Shots:
Louise V. Parkes (Liberal): Oshawa
Patricia Davidson (Conservative): Sarnia Lambton


Manitoba:
Ridings: 14
Female Candidates: 10
Win: 3
Close: 1
Long Shot: 0

Predicted Wins for Women:
Winnipeg North: Judy Wasylycia-Leis (NDP)
Winnipeg South Centre: Anita Neville (Liberal) (note: could be very close)
Kildonan St. Paul: Joy Smith (Conservative)

Incumbent women who may lose seat:
Bev Desjarlais (Independent): Churchill
possibly Anita Neville: Winnipeg South Centre

Women running against Women in close races:
Niki Ashton (NDP), Tina Keeper (Liberal), Bev Desjarlais (Independent) - Current prediction leans toward NDP


Saskatchewan:
Ridings: 12
Female Candidates: 11
Win: 2
Close: 1
Long Shot: 1

Predicted Wins for Women:
Blackstrap: Lynne Yelich (Conservative)
Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar: Carol Skelton (Conservative) (May be a close race with New Democrat Nettie Wiebe)


Women in Close Races
Palliser: Joanne Dusel (NDP) in a close race with the Conservative incumbent Dave Batters.

Long Shot:
Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River: Anita Jackson (NDP)


Alberta
Ridings: 28
Female Candidates: 27
Wins: 2
Close: 1
Long Shot: 1

Predicted Wins for Women:

Edmonton Spruce Grove: Rona Ambrose (Conservative)
Calgary Nose Hill: Diane Ablonczy (Conservative)


Incumbent women who may lose their seat:
Edmonton Centre: Anne McClellan (LIB) - in a close race with Conservative Candidate

Long Shot:
Edmonton Strathcona: Linda Duncan (NDP)


British Columbia
Ridings: 36
Female Candidates: 33
Wins: 6
Close: 7
Long shot: 1

Predicted Wins for Women:
Kamloops Thompson Cariboo: Betty Hinton (Conservative)
Fleetwood-Port Kells: Nina Grewal (Conservative)
Nanaimo Cowichan: Jean Crowder (NDP)
Surrey North: Penny Priddy (NDP)
Vancouver Centre: Hedy Fry (Liberal)
Vancouver East: Libby Davies (NDP)

Women in close races:
Burnaby New Westminster: Mary Pynenburg (Liberal) in a close three-way race with incumbent Peter Julian (NDP) and Conservative Mark Dalton
Newton North Delta: Nancy Clegg (NDP)
Victoria: Denise Savoie (NDP)(close, but predicted to win)
Vancouver Island North: Catherine Bell (NDP)

Women running against women in close races:
New Westminster Coquitlam: Joyce Murray (Liberal) and Dawn Black (NDP) running against Paul Forseth (Conservative). Predictions vary between NDP and Conservative
North Vancouver: Sherry Shaghagi (NDP) and Cindy Silver (Conservative) running against Liberal Don Bell
Saanich Gulf Islands: Sheila Orr (Liberal) and Jennifer Burgis (NDP) running against Conservative Gary Lunn

Long Shot:
West Vancouver Sunshine Coast Sea to Sky Country: Judith Wilson (NDP)


North:
Ridings: 3
Female Candidates: 3
Win: 1
Close: 1
Long Shot: 1

Predicted Win for Women:
Nunavut: Nancy Karatek-Lindell (Liberal)

Incumbent women who may lose seat:
Ethel Blondin-Andrew (Liberal) is predicted to lose her seat to New Democrat Dennis Bevington

Long Shot:
Yukon: Pam Boyde (NDP)


National Totals:
Wins: 48
Close: 31

If all the close races were won by female candidates, we’ll end up with just over 25% of seats - a slight improvement, but still far from equality!


Stats from Equal Voice

National Totals:

63 Women elected (20.45%)

Conservative: 14 out of 124 seats
Liberal : 21 out of 103 seats
Bloc: 16 out of 51 seats
NDP: 12 out of 29 seats


Women elected in 2006 have dropped to 63 or 20.45% which means our listing world-wide is likely to drop from 42nd place to 45th.

June


While it is sad that the number of women elected to Parliament is going in the wrong direction, slightly, I think looking at the percentages by party is also revealing:

Conservative: 14 out of 124 seats = 11.3 %
Liberal : 21 out of 103 seats = 20.4 %
Bloc: 16 out of 51 seats = 31.4 %
NDP: 12 out of 29 seats = 41.4 %

It is clear that it is the Conservative Party, and to a lesser extent the Liberals, that are not woman friendly, while the Bloc and especially the NDP are up there with levels approaching the Scandinavian countries.

Ciao, Bruce.


Well, exactly. The most obvious fact about the election was that the number of Conservative seats increased substantially. Therefore it is even possible for *ALL* of the proportions listed above to *increase* while the overall number *decreases*.

Does anyone have the figures from last time to say whether that did in fact happen?

Julian


Last time:

Conservative: 12 out of 99 = 12.1%
Liberal: 34 out of 135 = 25.2%
Bloc: 14 out of 54 = 25.9%
NDP: 5 out of 19 = 26.3%

So mostly it was the Liberals who let the show down. Does this mean a lot of incumbent Liberal women were defeated? Or did some of them not run again?

Julian


We would need to compare the % elected vs % nominated in 2004 and 2006. Does anyone have these numbers?

Stephen


2006 Nominations

Conservative: 38/308 = 12.3%
Liberal: 79/308 = 25.6%
Bloc: 23/75 = 30.6%
NDP: 108/308 = 35%
Green: 72/308 = 23%

Stephen


And the relevance of all this to PR is???

Best regards

Alastair


Better representation of women is one of the broad criteria that Fair Vote
Canada uses to assess electoral systems.

Cheers,

Derek


The relevance is that our current voting system throws up barriers to the election of women and minorities, while PR promotes diversity. Aside from Cuba, every country with at least 30% women in their legislature uses proportional voting.

That's why removing barriers to the election of women and minorities is contained in our Statement of Purpose.

Wayne

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